08 February, 2008

The Pundits Spin... Who Cares?

Last night I sat and watched Karl Rove on Fox tell why Mike Huckabee is wasting his time and money and hurting the Republican Party. He said that mathematically Huck was facing an all but impossible task. He got out his dry erase board and showed that in order to win, Huckabee has to win over 80% of the remaining delegates while McCain has to win 42% of them. You know, just looking at those numbers, it does seem nigh unto impossible. But is this the whole story? I don't think so. Read on and lets look at this together.

Actually there are several things wrong with what Mr. Rove was saying.
First, he made it sound like a lock that McCain will get 42% of those delegates.
There are several things you have to consider.

1) While Romney (and others) have dropped out, many have already voted early, and their votes will still count.
2) Many Romney supporters will lean toward Huckabee.
3) Many of these states are winner take all states. In other words, he could end up losing a state by a small margin and get nothing out of it, as happened to Huck in Missouri and South Carolina.

There is one prospect that no one is talking about. Let's say that in the remaining states, with the early votes and winner take all situations, that Huck does not reach 80% BUT NEITHER DOES MCCAIN REACH HIS NEEDED TOTAL.
That is a very real and distinct possibility.
So now we go into a brokered convention. In talking with a friend last night, he insisted a brokered convention would go to McCain... but would it?
I don't think so.
Consider the fact that McCain has already been anointed the nominee by all the media, the pundits and so on, yet he is unable to seal the deal.
I think that shows the man cannot win the election and tilts the whole thing in the favor of Huckabee.
No, it is not over yet folks.

Some say Huck is running for VP. I really don't think that is the case; however, I must admit that if a strong showing by the Huck in the next several primaries garners Huckabee the nod for VP, it would sway my vote and I would back McCain.

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